Geopolitics in times of transformation
The speeches of Pete Hegseth (US Secretary of Defense) at NATO, as well as those of J.D.Vance (Vice President of the USA) at the Munich Security Conference last week, have severely shaken the transatlantic relationship between Europe and the USA. Hegseth had stated that Ukraine would not join NATO, that the US would not continue to support Ukraine financially or militarily, that President Trump wanted to negotiate peace in Ukraine – with Russia, that he did not believe that the former territories of Ukraine occupied by Russia could be recaptured or negotiated – and on top of that, – that America under Trump intends to withdraw from Europe in order to concentrate on the tasks in the Pacific region, which they perceive as more urgent. Shock for the European elites. But then the speech of Vance . Self-confident, eloquent, almost elegant, unagitated, he had read the Levites to the European politicians, criticized them, sometimes even mocked them. He had accused them of a poor understanding of democracy. He said he had the impression that the political elites were afraid of their own people. He criticized Friedrich Merz for his statement in parliament, – „those who voted for the AfD in the coming election would learn the next day that their vote was worth nothing.“ And he criticized the idea of a firewall (against the AfD) as deeply undemocratic. The next day, Saturday, Feb. 15, several EU grandees, including Chancellor Scholz, gave speeches and (as a friend wrote to me) confirmed Vance’s accusations by not wanting to accept them as a different opinion, but criticizing them as unacceptable and condemning them as interference in the elections of another country. One must remember in what a massive way these same politicians and media had positioned and interfered in the American election campaign – in favor of the Democrats and against Trump.
A medium had described the mood at the MSK as – shock and tearful faces. Now that the European elites have adhered to Joe Biden’s and the neoconservative Democrats‘ guidelines in such great vassal loyalty, not only harmed themselves with massive support for the war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia – but also made Russia an enemy. Now they are trembling with fear of Russia in the face of the „threat“ that the US might leave them.
Alexander Mercouris, my preferred source of international and geopolitical research for about 4 years now, had described this situation and development excellently in his blog yesterday, but he lacked a viable alternative for the Europeans. But that is exactly what I wanted to address here and now. Now, however, A. Mercouris has presented something like an alternative for Europe in his blog today – and he quoted a certain Arnold Bertrand with the idea of two alternatives for the Europeans in the situation that has now arisen. 1. In a joint action, the Europeans bring the (peace) plan of Trump and Putin to failure – and thus cause a continuation of the war – and a further commitment of the Americans – and thus also their remaining in Europe.
Or 2. – The Europeans are doing what would actually be logical and obvious – they are also coming to terms with Russia, even where the USA no longer likes it.
Apart from this new perspective in Mercouri’s presentations, I wanted to write here and now that I do see an alternative for Europe – or for Germany. My approach is the one I already represented here in 2018 when I started this blog. And I say that we need more or less a complete exchange of elites in Europe. And with it a completely new foreign or geopolitics. A swing to the east. A new Eurasian policy of cooperation and cooperation with Russia, China, India, Iran and Asia in general. Beginnings of this can already be seen in a very fast-growing party AfD in Germany, in an FPÖ with the very talented Kickl in Austria, in a Le Penn in France, in a Gerd Wilders in Holland – and anyway for a long time in political figures, such as Orban in Hungary, Fico in Slovakia, Vucic in Serbia, etc. In my estimation, – if one of the large European countries, especially Germany or France, tips in this direction, then a pull effect of the others in this direction is very strong. Of course, the USA would not exactly like this and such a radical change of policy would bring some problems and pains, – but in the end I see it as the logical and natural solution. Bismarck already said – „Germany is doing well as long as it works with Russia – and bad when it works against Russia“. Today, China must also be counted among them, which Bismarck did not have on his radar at the time. The core problem with our European elites, the political as well as the media, is a collective stubbornness in a Russophobic attitude. The absurd narrative that Russia is an aggressive state of conquest and threatens Europe with fantasies of conquest is too deeply and seemingly indelibly anchored in their minds. In their fear of Russia, which was of course stoked by the USA and England, they cling desperately to the great (supposed) protector – the USA – and sell any independence for this supposed „security“. This goes so far that when the destruction of an important lifeline of the German economy, the North Stream Pipeline, is announced, our Chancellor stands next to the American President Biden, grinning stupidly and not daring to object. And the Greens – Foreign Minister Baerbock and Vice-Chancellor and Economics Minister Habeck – also applaud it. It is quite right for such pathetic vassal figures to fall into a hopeless abyss now, where their master simply changes the political parameters as he pleases.