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Prognose über den weiteren Verlauf des Syrienkonfliktes

Alfred Kath
Gerade eben ·

Liebe Freunde,
zur aktuellen Syrienkrise möchte es einmal wagen, eine Prognose zu schreiben. Hier kommt sie:-
Der scheinbar unberechenbare Trump hat eine konkrete Absicht geäußert, Raketen auf Syrien abzuschießen – ( um den bösen Assad zu bestrafen)
Die USA und ihre Verbündeten (Vasallen) haben sich im Vorfeld zu deutlich darauf festgelegt, dass Assad für den (angeblichen) Giftgasangriff verantwortlich ist, als dass es wahrscheinlich ist, dass sie davon noch einmal abrücken werden oder können, ohne Gesichtsverlust.
Russland hat im Gegenzug diesmal auch seine rote Linie eingezogen und angedroht, bei Gefährdung oder Verletzung seiner Bürger und Soldaten in Syrien, sowie bei Beschuss von Syrischen Hoheitsgebiet – zurück zu schießen und Raketen sowie deren Abschussrampen zu zerstören.
Außerdem hat Russland (angeblich) Assad erlaubt, Israelische Flugplätze zu bombardieren, wenn Syrien weiterhin von Israelischen Flugzeugen und Raketen angegriffen wird.
Des weiteren hat auch China angedroht, eine militärische Eskalation in Syrien nicht zuzulassen. Das ist ein Novum in dieser Auseinandersetzung und macht deutlich, welch großes Interesse China in Syrien hat. Es ist ein wichtiger Knotenpunkt im Seidenstraßenprojekt und China investiert zurzeit viel Geld in Syriens Wiederaufbau.
Also, – wie kommen wir aus diesem verfahrenen Dilemma ohne großen Gesichtsverlust heraus?
Mein Vorschlag und damit gleichzeitig meine Prognose mag zynisch klingen, aber zynisch ist das Ganze von Anfang an – und es geht jetzt darum, . wie kann die große Eskalation verhindert werden.
Also – auch wenn die normalen diplomatischen Kanäle weitgehend im Vorfeld außer Kraft gesetzt wurden – (und dazu mag vielleicht die Scripal Affäre gedient haben) – so gibt es dennoch Gesprächskanäle zwischen USA und Russland auf militärischer und geheimdienstlicher Ebene.
Es ist bekannt geworden, dass es Uneinigkeit über das Vorgehen in der US Regierung gibt – und dass ausgerechnet das Militär, – Pentagon zur Vorsicht und Zurückhaltung mahnt.
Also – könnte ich mir vorstellen, dass durch militärisch und geheimdienstliche Gesprächskanäle zwischen Russland und den USA eine art stillschweigende Übereinkunft ausgehandelt und getroffen wird.
In etwa so :- Ihr bombardiert da und da ein paar – mehr oder wenige leer stehende Gebäude und Anlagen – welches dann groß als schwerer Schlag publiziert werden kann.
Syrien und die Russen dürfen im Gegenzug einige Raketen abschießen – vielleicht ein oder zwei Flugzeuge, Auf keinen nFall ein Amerikanisches Schiff. Höchstens könnte die Deutsche Lusitania (oh entschuldige – ich meine die Hessen) – geopfert werden.
So hätten beide Seiten einen gesichtswahrenden Ausweg. Trump könnte sich daraufhin aus Syrien zurückziehen und auch vor seinen eigenen Kriegstreibern bestehen. Man erlaubt den Medien Assad als bestraft hinzustellen – (was ja angeblich Sinn uns Zweck der Übung sein sollte)
Syrien bleib bestehen und Russland hat wieder eine gute Gelegenheit nutzen können, seine überlegenen Waffensysteme zu demonstrieren, was ihm in der Folge gute Geschäfte bescheren wird,
So zynisch es klingen mag, aber was sind schon ein paar Tote, – selbst notfalls – ein paar hundert, angesichts der Alternative oder der Gefahr einer großen Eskalation zwischen den zwei Lagern – USA und Vasallen einerseits – Russland, China, Iran Syrien andererseits ( die Frage ist noch nicht vollständig geklärt, wo die Türkei steht – auch wenn ich glaube – sie hat den Wechsel in’s Russische Lager vollzogen)
So in etwa – lautet meine Prognose.
Dann schaun mer mal.

5 Comments on “Prognose über den weiteren Verlauf des Syrienkonfliktes

  • Tom Kath
    14. April 2018 at 03:11

    Yes, I agree that something along those lines is the most likely way forward and this is already today being reported – in some instances as „confrontation“ between Trump and Mattis. I would like, however, to at least consider the possibility that Trump may be actually quite skillfully utilising the confusion he creates to undermine the mainstream push for war. – Comments like „for domestic consumption“ in regard to some of his tweets and outbursts.
    On the other hand, I would not dismiss the possibility of some „little dog biting one of the big dogs in the arse to inspire outrage and conflict“ – Apart from some of Trump’s hawkish warmongers, I would be most wary of subversive provocations from the British, French, and of course Israel. Tom

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    • Alfred Kath
      14. April 2018 at 16:59

      Ja Tom, wie meistens, wir verstehen uns und sind weitgehend einer Meinung.
      Ich verstehe das Ganze als eine Theaterinszenierung – Trump muss sich vor seinen eigenen Leuten und den Hardlinern schützen. Er schreit ANGRIFF ! ANGRIFF ! – und kaschiert so seinen Rückzug.

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  • Wichtel
    14. April 2018 at 23:31

    I have been watching Trump for quite a while now and used to think he was very clever. However, his daily tweets and conflicting outbursts make me believe he really doesn’t know what he is doing. He is making things up on a daily basis and has no long term plans. In other words, he is way over his head. He is making the USA the laughing stock of the world and leading the country to the end of the road which started with the defeat in Vietnam. Just part of the history of the world. Empires come and go. Some last longer than others.

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    • Tom Kath
      15. April 2018 at 03:38

      Yes, Wichtel, Empires come and go, but it may be a bit premature or wishful thinking that this one has already gone! We may long for a time when US is a laughing stock, but even for you and me they are not yet a laughing matter. – Trump’s role, intentionally or unintentionally, to bring that about, I see as laudable. – I don’t claim any more than most others, to know his real intentions or aspirations, but he certainly is helping America to come to terms with the fact that they are not as „Great“ as they imagined.
      PS. I find it useful to consider always who he is primarily targeting with any comment, outburst, or twitt. – Domestic consumption, allies, enemies, rivals, supporters, antagonisers…..?
      As I say, wittingly or unwittingly, it is going roughly in the right direction at least for those who want that US dominance diminished, challenged, and overthrown. Tom

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  • Alfred Kath
    17. April 2018 at 12:20

    Kommentar meines Bruders Tom (lebt in Australien)
    by Tom Kath
    POTUSI first read this word in a note written by George Bush Senior, regarding a deep ideological dispute he had with his son “Dubbya”, who was then President Of The US. In regard to the current one, Trump, there is no question that he is by farthe most controversial POTUS at least in living memory. He is universally detested by virtually the entire world as well as by about 48% of Americans themselves. Those who support him, as well as those who oppose him, cannot but acknowledge him as quintessentially American. His detractors despise him asmerely a successful business tycoon, and therefore unfit for this office, although there is never any comparison made to the suitability of a cattle farmer (Bush), peanut farmer (Carter), cowboy movie actor (Reagan), Playboy (Clintons, Kennedys), let alone “more experienced politicians” such as Swarzenegger or Clint Eastwood.Certainly from a personal or emotional perspective, Trump does seem to represent the more excessive even repulsive American psyche of deluded greatness and disregard to the point of absolute ignorance of anything notAmerican. That this quintessential American ness has polarised even Americans,is not surprising. Most leaders aim to portray themselves as representing the essential spirit of their people, which in probably all cases can be seen as embarrassing, since it tends to present itself as an exaggeration or caricature. What could be more American these days than someone obsessed with money and twittering on his mobile phone all day?So! There are two questions we must answer. 1/ Are we in favour of continued American Imperial rule? And 2/ Is POTUS Trump a silly fool? – Obviously, if you were in favour, you would want a more astute leader, and if he isn’t a silly fool you would support him. – If you are not in favour of continued American imperialism, you would be glad that they are being led by a fool. – Is he? Are you?It is rarely considered possible that POTUS Trump himself may actually not be in favour of continued American imperialism. It is equally rare to see him as astute enough to foresee the inevitable and imminent collapse of American hegemony. Iam not the only one to have drawn analogies between Trump’s position and role, and that of Gorbachev at the time. To prepare and transition a population from a self perception of great world dominating power, to the realities of being just a player, (albeit a very significant big one), is not a simple overnight matter given that you want to prevent a brutal crushing. Any true leader with the interests of his people at heart, and sufficient insight, would naturally try to prevent brutal annihilation.As to the true picture, like most things, the reality probably lies somewhere between the extreme perceptions of both his foolishness as well as his seeminglyquintessential American dream. In the meantime, whether he is exceptionally wise or in fact absolutely stock standard average common Yankee, no POTUS or indeed any other dictator in the world, ever rules single handed and the
    convincing, selecting, and manipulating of his aides to a changed direction is necessarily an ongoing process.I have mentioned before some of the steps or indications of changed direction which Trump has made. 1/ The challenging of a deluded American self perceptioncreated by misleading or “fake” media. 2/ The subtle undermining of this delusion of greatness with the slogan “Make America Great Again”, implying the inescapable fact that it is not as great as we think now.3/ Repeated attempts to reign in entrenched foreign policies of regime change and chaos to prevent any build up of possibly challenging forces. 4/ The addressing of welfare and healthcare as “taken for granted” rights. As well as 5/ the more masculine perception of Territorial Sovereignty, symbolically beginning with America’s.His methods, often reminiscent of an impulsive child playing with a mobile phone, make him seem unpredictable, or as is often claimed, “A loose cannon”, but this once again only describes his quintessential American ness. This psyche,once understood, is as predictable as any impulsive child.Finally, the tendency to attribute anything and everything America does to the POTUS, is as flawed as thinking that Malcolm Turnbull is personally responsible for what I am writing. In regard to America, we cannot judge POTUS Trump relative to what you, I, Putin, Xi, or Kim would do, but rather compared to what any realistic alternative would do. The resentment Trump faces, is resentment against American imperial hegemony. He is actually undermining this hegemony far more effectively than any realistic alternative. Whether he is doing so knowingly on purpose or due to childish ignorance (wittingly or unwittingly) is notclear and to me at least, relatively unimportant. Once again, the truth will almostcertainly be a bit of both.

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