This is what I would do (if I were Xi)
Alfred Kath Hamdorf 18.03.2023
This is what I would do (if I were Xi)
China’s President Xi Jinping will make a state visit to Moscow next week – from Monday to Wednesday. There is certainly much to discuss between Xi and Putin. Much will be discussed long before and ready for a ceremonial signature. It is also said that following the talks with Putin, Xi will have a conversation with Volodymyr Zelenskyj.
China astonished the world with a diplomatic coup last week, thereby expanding its role and authority in world politics. It was about a rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, two regional rivals for power in the Middle East, in the Arab world.
And now it’s about an even bigger project, an end to the Ukrainian-Russian war.
In my opinion, China has very good cards in its hands. China is closely allied with Russia, but has good relations with Ukraine for many years, especially on an economic level. In addition, China is now a very important „global player“ and has enormous amounts of money.
So here’s what, to put it bluntly, what I would say to Zelenskyi in Xi’s place,
„– My dear Volodymyr, – You and your people, the Ukrainians, deserve my great respect and appreciation for a great and brave struggle that you have been fighting for over a year. You have shown not only us, but the whole world, that you are cut from pithy wood. I have a certain understanding for your desire and aspiration to be integrated into the EU – and consequently also into NATO. However, I believe that the West, led by the US, has not always been honest and fair with you. A big part of the West’s motivation to arm you and stand by you is the desire to harm Russia. In this respect, the West is using Ukraine for its geopolitical goals. However, it is still very questionable whether these goals are really to the advantage of the US and its allies in the long term. But now I believe that the time has come to sit down at the negotiating table and strive for an end to this war. With this in mind, I would like to make you a very generous offer today – because of course we also have a great interest in an end to this conflict. According to our well-informed assessment of the situation on the battlefield, things are not looking very good for Ukraine. I consider a reconquest of the territories occupied and integrated by Russia, including Crimea, to be out of the question. Quite apart from the global political danger of a victory over Russia, we (i.e. China) do not want that either, and so we would stand by Russia in an emergency (which we do not anticipate). We do not want to give the United States and its allies a template for such a confrontation in the case of Taiwan. Thus, we see as high the probability that if the war continues, there will be many more deaths and wounded, as well as further destruction of the infrastructure of your country – and – that the conditions for a peace agreement in the course of a war extension getting worse and worse for you. We also believe that it makes sense to bring peace to the region by accepting the elections in the areas concerned, because even if Ukraine were to reconquer these territories, this would not guarantee peace. not even if Russia were to withdraw, because the different ethnic populations between East and West (Ukraine) have led to deep hostility and alienation.
And so I come to my offer: – We offer you our help for a very extensive reconstruction program after a ceasefire / or peace agreement. With one trillion euros (one thousand billion) over 10 years, we want to help rebuild and modernize your country. In addition, we invite you to start an application for membership in the BRICS Association. I have already talked to my partners about this and have received a positive response. I also spoke to President Putin and he signalled that he might be willing to return the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant and its region to Ukraine. In addition, Russia continues to offer you cheap gas and oil and would also be willing to help with reconstruction – e.g. the construction of new nuclear power plants. Russia and China would be together – and each separate willing to give you extensive security guarantees. The US, Europe and the entire West face major financial challenges in the near future, and even if they were honest and reliable, they would hardly be able to help you in a similar way. However, we have a big doubts about their honesty and reliability.
Dear Volodymyr, I understand that it is not an easy decision for you, but I strongly recommend you to carefully examine our offer. Your people want victory, but – especially in view of the situation, your people want one thing above all else – peace. And we will publish our offer in the media. Even if the Western press tries to ignore it – or discredit it, it will find its way to the people of Ukraine and around the world. “
So much for Xi –
I believe this goal would be a great success and would therefore be worthwhile or justify such a great effort. It would also be another nail in the coffin of US American dominance and arrogance.
I even believe that it would be a „relief“ for most Western countries, even for the US, because they have completely lost themselves in this war, which they cannot win.